Spring 2025 Wildfire Risk Outlook: What to Expect in the Southeast

The Southeastern United States is heading into a period of heightened wildfire risk, driven by persistent drought, increased fuel from debris left behind by storms, and the ongoing influence of La Niña. According to the latest Spring 2025 Wildfire Risk Assessment from the Southern Area Decision Support Group, wildland fire managers and decision-makers should expect and prepare for elevated wildfire activity across the region.

What the Outlook Predicts

The report outlines three possible scenarios for the coming months:

Most Likely Scenario (60% probability): Increased wildfire activity starting earlier than usual, requiring sustained suppression efforts. Persistent drought and dry conditions will drive fire activity across much of the Southeast.
Worst-Case Scenario (25% probability): Severe and prolonged period of wildfire activity, with ongoing drought, increased fire size and intensity, and significant pressure on firefighting resources extending into late spring or early summer.
Best-Case Scenario (15% probability): A shift in weather patterns bringing increased precipitation, keeping fire activity near or below normal levels. However, current long-term forecasts suggest this scenario is unlikely.

Key Risk Factors for Spring 2025

Several conditions are contributing to heightened wildfire risk:

Severe Drought Conditions: Many parts of the region, including North Carolina, Georgia, Florida and the southern coastal plains, have experienced rainfall deficits of 9-12 inches over the past 120 days, leaving vegetation dry and highly flammable.
Fuel Buildup from Past Storms: Debris from past hurricanes and drought-stressed forests are creating dangerous fuel loads, particularly in the southern Appalachians and coastal Carolinas.
High Winds and Dry Conditions in the Southern Plains: Texas and Oklahoma are at risk for wind-driven wildfires, especially in areas with above-normal grass loading.
Coastal Peatland Fires: Regions with high levels of organic fuels, such as the peatlands of North Carolina and parts of Florida, are especially vulnerable. Spring thunderstorms and lightning strikes could ignite fires that smolder deep into organic soil layers, making suppression efforts difficult.

Preparing for Heightened Wildfire Activity

For agencies and land managers, the Spring 2025 Wildfire Risk Assessment recommendations include:

Pre-positioning firefighting resources in high-risk areas for faster response.
Enhancing public awareness and fire prevention efforts, especially in areas impacted by hurricane damage and drought.
Continuing to strengthen multi-agency coordination to ensure a well-prepared and unified response.
Closely monitoring fire environment trends and precipitation forecasts to adapt suppression strategies as conditions evolve.

The Bottom Line

While uncertainties remain, as with any weather forecasting exercise, confidence is high that warmer and drier-than-normal conditions will dominate the Southeastern U.S. in the coming months. State forestry agencies and partners know early planning essential. For fire managers, landowners and communities, now is the time to review wildfire response plans, strengthen partnerships and reinforce wildfire prevention and mitigation measures before conditions escalate.